Sunday, March 11, 2012

5 Questions about the 2012 Men's NCAA Tournament

With only two days before the First Four, even the most casual sports fan will scramble to learn all the names of schools they never knew existed in any attempt to have an edge in the bracket. It doesn't matter if you've been glued to the tube ever since the ball first hit the ground at the Carrier Classic, the 63-year-old lady that works in accounting is going to whip you (and she just now learned that Duke wasn't in England). But Hey!, winners aren't afraid to lose, right? So here are 5 questions (and their answers, you lucky dog) that might be putting the full court press on your bracket picks.

1. Who are the safe picks?

Kentucky
- Most talent spread at all positions
- Number one overall seed
- Elite defense, Capable of playing at varied paces, Tallest team in NCAA

- Mostly underclassmen
- Only 7 players deep
- Tendency to disappear offensively for stretches

Syracuse
- Dominated by upperclassmen
- Zone defense can cause teams with weak shooting fits
- Strong bench with depth at all positions

- Won ugly in many Big East games
- No All-American caliber player
- Easily muscled

North Carolina
- Lots of tourney experience
- Excellent transition offense
- Best point guard/big man combo (Marshall/Zeller) in the country

- Weak against the 3
- If Harrison Barnes doesn't show, offense stagnates
- Susceptible to slow pace/half court offense

Michigan State
- Best collection of wins over the season
- Extremely physical and strong (especially in the paint)
- Draymond Green is a natural mismatch for almost any team

- Struggle to score higher than 70
- Perimeter offense can be weak
- Susceptible to foul trouble

2.Which teams are just swimming under the surface ready for attack?

Florida State
- Beat Duke and North Carolina twice
- Physical defense
- Multiple threats on the perimeter

- Lost to Harvard
- Live/Die by the 3
- Guards can be outmatched physically

Missouri
- Most efficient offense in the country
- Won Big 12 tourney
- 4 guards/1 big lineup can cause matchup hell

- Lack of Depth
- Lack of Size
- Depend on the 3

Ohio State
- Veteran team
- Jared Sullinger can dominate offensively
- Strong team defense

- Weaker shooting than last year
- Jared Sullinger can easily turn to "hero mode"
- Can be muscled in the paint

Baylor
- Immense talent in the frontcourt
- Seemed to wake up in Big 12 tournament
- Very strong starting lineup

- Inconsistant during the season
- Big men settle for jumpshots
- Trouble with quick, perimeter-oriented teams

3.Who will be this year's Butler or VCU?

Ultimately, I don't think that this year's tourney will feature a team that blows everyone out of the water. At least not a seed below 10. While these two teams are not from Power 6 conferences, they definitely have the potential to please the basketball gods.
It just so happens that these two teams played in the same conference: Mountain West. This conference was very competitive this year, getting 4 bids (the same as the SEC).

UNLV
- Beat North Carolina
- Historically strong basketball program
- 3rd in assists

- Rough last weeks of the season
- Mike Moser has to play well

New Mexico
- Drew Gordon is a beast, easily capable of 20/20 games
- 5 game win streak
- Frequently limit teams to under 60 points

- Heavily dependant on Gordon
- Lack of strong road wins
- Weak 3 point shooting

4.Oh COME ON! Humor us! Pick a cinderella!

If you're really pushing me, I'll give you two.

Although they are a Power 6 team, I think NC State could cause some havoc in the tourney. Coming in with a late season run, they barely snuck in with an 11 seed. They gave North Carolina a run for their money on Saturday, and they seem balanced on offense. Forward C.J. Leslie can really make a name for himself.

It may seem safe to pick VCU to make a run this year, since they did it last year, but their first round matchup is against a dark horse darling in Wichita State. Thats like the river in Oregon Trail, everyone wants to abandon the stagecoach. They play hectic defense that can kill teams' confidence in their offenses. Many of the players were on the team last year and won't feel like underdogs coming into this game. Wichita State is one of the most balanced teams in the tourney, so a win over that squad will put fear in the hearts of upcoming teams.

5. Who's gonna win it all?

It's very rare that the best team actually wins the championship, especially in the age of the mid-major. Combine that idea with the thrill of not making the safest pick (Kentucky) and I think Missouri will be standing during "One Shining Moment".

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